Biomass stocks in California’s fire-prone forests: mismatch in ecology and policy

Abstract Restoration of fire-prone forests can promote resiliency to disturbances, yet such activities may reduce biomass stocks levels that conflict with climate mitigation goals. Using a set large-scale historical inventories across the Sierra Nevada/southern Cascade region, we identified underlying climatic and biophysical drivers forest characteristics projected how restoration these manifest under future climate. Historical conditions varied site moisture availability but were generally characterized by low tree density (∼53 trees ha −1 ), live basal area (∼22 m 2 (∼34 Mg high pine dominance. Our predictions reflected broad convergence in structure, frequent fire is most likely explanation for this convergence. Under (2040–2069), hotter sites become more prevalent, nearly ubiquitously favoring densities, biomass, Based on projections, region be unable support aboveground >40 2069, value approximately 25% current average stocks. Ultimately, restoring resilient will require adjusting carbon policy match limited region.